UD Hosts The Race of This Century So Far (G1)

I proposed the following scenario to a few Thoroughbred racing experts who like to bet a bit:

Let’s just say they’re running The Race of This Century So Far (G1) at Upsand Downs, a one-mile track of sandy loam and carpet fibers and popcorn that owners, trainers and handicappers have been raving about since its inception because there is no track bias, speed and pace figures hold up and the injury rate is zero.

Entered, in post position order, are: Quality Road with John Velazquez aboard; Rachel Alexandra and Calvin Borel; Zenyatta with Mike Smith in the saddle and Blame with Garrett Gomez riding.

The distance is a mile and a quarter. The boys carry 128 and the girls 125.

Who wins and why?

“Zenyatta.” ESPN statistician, broadcaster and paddock analyst Rolly Hoyt

He says: “She is the only one of the four with a win at 1 1/4 miles and thus is a known quantity.

All indications are the two inside runners would be under severe pressure at that distance. They also neutralize their best running styles – high-cruisers with stamina.

To the best of my knowledge Zenyatta is a bigger horse than Blame and has shown an ability to produce tremendous late speed, especially when unencumbered by heavy handicaps. Blames best chance would be to hem Zenyatta into a spot behind QR and RA and hold her there while those two tire and thus get a jump on her, but even then, we know Zenyatta has overcome similar situations in the past either with lesser horses at shorter distances or similar horses at that specific distance.

Either Quality Road and Rachel Alexandra could attempt to blast away from the pack – perhaps earlier than we have seen from them in the past – but judging by Rachel’s difficulties in the Woodward and the Preakness and considering what Quality Road gave back to Musket Man and Tizway in the Met Mile, I can’t imagine either building a big enough lead without massive jockey error on the part one of the other three riders.

A Breeders’ Cup Classic with those four plus 10 others might be a different story, although I still think Zenyatta would have the most scenarios that would produce her as the winner.”

Quality Road wins by 1 1/2 lengths.” Professional sports handicapper Carlo “The Iron Horse” Campanella

He imagines the race this way: “Quality Road rates just off of pace setter, Rachel Alexandra, who is NOT the same filly she was last year, getting beat by much less competition than Quality Road in 2 of her last 3 starts. Even when winning her last, she drifted out down the lane….Quality Road gets the “perfect” just-off-the-leaders Johnny R. ride. The boys, the distance, the physical issues, she hits “the Super” by finishing 4th because no one can finish 5th. Blame is an up and comer, but outclassed here. He gets in the tri with an off the pace finish to pass Rachel late in the lane as she drifts out once again. Zenyatta gets rolling late after trailing the four horse field for the first mile, but facing the toughest horse that she has ever encountered, she does miss by a diminishing length and a half.”

Brisnet customer service guru and NHC Tour player Les Instone sent a fantasy chart, with the footnotes printed here:

ZENYATTA broke slowly, was content to trail the field until midway through the final turn. She was asked to run entering the stretch three wide and passed the pacesetters with relative ease. QUALITY ROAD broke alertly after being rank while loading into the starting gate. He controlled the early pace without pressure from RACHEL ALEXANDRA until challenged by that rival entering the far turn. Those two raced head and head from the three-eighths pole until the top of the stretch when Quality Road opened up on the field, but he could not withstand the closing charge of the winner. Rachel Alexandra raced forwardly to the quarter pole and weakened. BLAME reserved early, stayed in contact with the field through the first mile but weakened in the final furlong.

“All depends on which one winks at me walking into the paddock.” Eclipse Award-winning writer, Saratoga Special publisher and visual handicapper Sean Clancy

(This answer may not be as flippant as you think. Sean, who is strictly a visual handicapper, had a mancrush on Drosselmeyer after the Louisiana Derby (G2), proclaiming him the Belmont (G1) winner immediately postrace. On Belmont afternoon, while doing paddock reports for the Horse Racing Radio Network, Drosselmeyer actually winked at Sean when he came into the paddock for the big race.)

What do you think? Send your ideas to racehorsereport@aol.com.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010 at 4:52 am and is filed under Featured Articles. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.